Image is everything to Trump, and the image war was tipping against him
1.) Alex Pretti, in the video, in his character, in his association with the Robby Rabinovich character in The Pitt in the subconscious of viewers, offered an unassailable image of goodness that Trump knew he could not overcome.
2.) Greg Bovino and Kristi Noem were becoming objects of derision and vilification. Bovino, with his tone deaf choice of an SS-echoing overcoat, was bringing to mind Nazi era repression, not patriotic strength and resolve. Noem, with her embarrassing cosplay soldier Barbie outfits, was eliciting the same kind of snickers that Trump elicited from European leaders as he thundered about taking over Greenland. His show of strength on the streets of Minneapolis had devolved into something brutish and cartoonish. He was not being feared, he was being mocked. And any further show of strength would only make him look worse. If Noem and Bovino aren't gone by the time you read this, I expect they will be given the boot shortly.
3.) The five year old boy in his bunny cap and the Hmong man in the Crocs and blanket were becoming the indelible images of this occupation. They were going to be Trump's visual equivalent of the naked Vietnamese girl fleeing from the napalm, and he knew he could not overcome them.
4.) The crowds in the streets of Minneapolis did not conform to Trump's expectations of post-George Floyd lawlessness which he expected to exploit, but were steadily winning the hearts and minds of the nation with their raise-the-hair-on-the back-of-your-neck unity and clarity of purpose. The nation's rooting interest was turning in their favor and Trump's only options were to cut and run, double down, or hope that the demonstrators would lose their enthusiasm which was not happening. His only viable option was to find a face saving off ramp.
Trump saw the economic power structure turning against him
It's a sad truism that wars only end when the men in suits turn against them. In the case of Trump's war on Minneapolis, Wall Street was the embodiment of the men in suits.
It was clear that Trump feared and does fear Wall Street because he has consistently backed down when the stock market told him that he had gone too far. So long as the tee shirt tech bros smothered him with their subservient adulation, and Wall Street always rebounded when he pulled back from the edge, he could play his game of financial brinkmanship.
But when the more staid corporate big dogs started to itch and twitch -- the Targets and United Health Cares and 3Ms and Cargills -- he knew that the men he so idolizes and fears, the ones who run the New York where he has tried so desperately to gain respect and meaningful entry, were about to turn on him, and if they abandoned him his most important and most desired power base would be in peril.
Trump finally set some stakes in the ground about what it would take to get him to leave
Any lawyer knows that you can't negotiate with an idea. There must be a specific in place, no matter how absurd.
Once Trump started talking in specifics about how many people had been detained and deported by ICE (4300, 2000, etc.), rather than just going on about rapists and murders and "many, many" people, it fit his pattern of stating a specific and then using that as a basis for claiming success in any venture.
The Greenland "tell" put the pieces together
It should have been obvious, but we were all looking in the wrong place. We were peering under the sheets and seeing "Epstein", and that blinded us to something deeper and more fundamental that should have been obvious if we been thinking more clearly:
Trump wants to be seen as a great president, not as a dictator.
Bear with me.
We on the left, and, increasingly, more of those in the center, are terrified of Trump's megalomaniacal push toward dictatorship, and that is what we see first when we look at his actions.
But Trump does not want to be a dictator, he just wants a dictator's power. What he wants to be is a great president or, at least, to be seen as one, which, in his mind, are one and the same. He just thinks he needs a dictator's power to accomplish the things necessary to achieve this goal.
What he truly wants is to be up on Mount Rushmore with Washington, Lincoln, Jefferson, and TR. Or at least to be seen as worthy of being up there. He has said as much. What he is trying to do by his actions is show himself as their equal, or their better.
Look at the tea leaves:
His "Donroe Doctrine"? He'll complete what James Monroe was never able to fully accomplish: take military control of the entire western hemisphere.
Misbehaving nations in that hemisphere? He'll outdo Teddy Roosevelt and his rough riders by making the waters of Venezuela the new San Juan hill.
Redo the White House? He'll outdo TR, Taft, Hoover, and FDR who built and expanded the West Wing; he'll build a ballroom as big as the White House itself. And his wife, not to be outdone by Jackie Kennedy, will redo the rose garden into a regal marble plaza.
A champion of culture? He'll redefine culture and put his name above Kennedy's on the national building that stands for culture and carries Kennedy's name.
Woodrow Wilson and the League of Nations? FDR and the UN? He will start an international Board of Peace that will dwarf them all.
Middle East Peace? He will outdo Clinton and Carter, even if it involves working with a sheik who treats his critics like the guy stuffed in the woodchipper in Fargo.
You can go on and on, picking your own analogies.
But the important thing to remember is that all of these were not simply, as they seemed to be on the surface, diversionary tactics or megalomaniacal overreaches. They were ham-handed attempts to claim his place as one of the greatest, if not the greatest, president in American history.
With Greenland, this goal came into focus.
The claiming of Greenland, on the surface, seemed insane--his wildest overreach or his most blatant Epstein diversion. But, in fact, Greenland was his wild grasp at Jeffersonian greatness. Greenland was to be his Louisiana Purchase. Though it didn't quite rise to that level, he was able to understand it that way in his own mind.
But then came Minneapolis.
Perhaps the Minneapolis Invasion was originally intended to be a demonstration of power; perhaps a punishment for uppity Democratic behavior; perhaps a war games practice ground for Stephen Miller's fever dreams of total domination. Perhaps, it had no psychological significance in Trump's mind whatsoever beyond his desire to hurt people who do not do what he says.
But whatever he or his minions originally intended, the Minneapolis occupation did not go as planned. His Project 2025 apparatchiks may have wanted it to be the start of a new Civil War, but Trump didn't. He wants to be seen as Abraham Lincoln by stopping a Civil War, not Bashar al Assad by starting one. Minneapolis, whatever it was intended to be, was going sideways for him.
Remember, more than once he has crowed, very specifically, that people tell him if he ran against Washington or Lincoln, or even against a ticket of the two of them, he would win. Absurd? Yes. But you can look it up. So while we were obsessed with seeing him as our own home-grown Hitler, he was obsessed with being seen as America's Greatest President. With every image of his thugs roughing up an old man in pajamas or snatching a two year old from her mother, with every image of soccer moms and grandmas marching with thousands in the streets, his narrative of being the Great President who solved our very real border crisis -- the one that has bedeviled presidents for decades -- was dissolving into the image of an authoritarian dictator who hated and oppressed ordinary Americans. He was becoming the anti-Abraham Lincoln. He was not ending a Civil War, he was on the verge of starting one. His fantasy image of himself as the fifth head on Mount Rushmore was dissolving before his very eyes.
Faced with the choice of doubling down and risking the bad optics of more killings and toddler kidnappings and freezing grandpas in bathrobes -- optics that would make him seem like a Hitler, not like a hero -- or withdrawing in a fog of lies and gaslighting, it was obvious which one he had to choose.
He needed to get out.
The playbook for his retreat had already set in a number of previous situations. Lop off a few heads (keep your resumes updated, Kristi and Kash and Bovino), claim that it was underlings who went too far, blow a few fake kisses towards those people who just days before he was vilifying as communists and terrorists, and pivot to a new narrative.
In this case the new narrative was obvious. He would become the voice of reason, stern but fair. The Great Conciliator. Walz had come to his senses. Without Trump's intervention, the nation would have descended into Civil War. Without his calm and measured hand, the dark forces that were manipulating the Left would have succeeded in tearing the country apart. His withdrawal of ICE agents in the face of the continuing assault of immigrant rapists and murderers was necessary to save the union that was about to be rent in two.
There it is. The New Lincoln, not ending a Civil War, but stopping one before it starts! It's craven, it's stupid, it's ridiculous. But it's pure Trump. And it allows him to continue his dark acts and Epstein diversions in other places and in other ways. (Cuba, anyone?)
There will be threats and skirmishes on the way out. He has to look strong. He has to have his hand on top in every handshake. But he is backing up.
Underneath, nothing has changed. But for the moment, the good guys have won.
But Trump is a moveable beast. As Arnold Schwarzenegger said in The Terminator, "I'll be back."